Game Theory (Snoopy and the Red Baron)
Give your opponent the opportunity to make the mistake. Written by Poker Penguin
Situation. You, Snoopy, are first to act on the river in a $1-2 limit holdem game headsup with the Red Baron and $8 in the pot. Betting patterns and the board make you think that old Manfred might well have missed the board. Unfortunately, so have you and Manfred might just have made a pair or something. Your Ace high should beat a stone cold bluff, but nothing else.
Check or bet? You could check, and then call if bet / pot > chance of opponent is bluffing. But can you really tell if the Red Baron is 33% likely to bluff at the river, or just 25%?
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